Anyone paying even the slightest attention knows that the American public is aging, that the population of seniors is growing faster than other age groups, and that the “baby boomers” will be putting new pressures on an infrastructure already stretched thin by changing demographics. A new report from the Brookings Institution explores the demographic shifts in a little more detail, highlighting some of the less-known changes we can expect to see in coming decades.

The report, authored by Visiting Brookings Fellow William H. Frey, analyzes already-available U.S. Census figures to reach its conclusions. It then draws a number of interesting—and some startling—conclusions from that data.

The aging of America, notes the report, is actually at least two separate demographic trends. It is true that the proportion of the public belonging to the “World War II” generation (those born between 1936 and 1945) is growing rapidly—but that growth is not evenly distributed across the country. While the states with the highest population of seniors in 2005 were clustered in the nation’s midsection and the industrial northeast, increases in senior populations as the World War II generation turns 65 through 2010 will be strongest in the Southeast and the West.

Meanwhile, the “pre-senior” Baby Boomer generation (those born between 1946 and 1965) is, as it has for 60 years, driving the demographic changes most strongly. The 55-64 age group is the fastest-growing segment of the population, with an anticipated 49% increase in this decade. That growth is also skewed regionally, with the highest rates almost exclusively in the West. Add Florida, Vermont and New Hampshire, and take away California, and you have a map of high baby-boomer growth tilting distinctly to the left.

Those aged 55-64 are increasingly college-educated (going from 10.9% to 28.5% of the pre-senior population between 1980 and 2005) more racially diverse (with “whites” dropping from 87.1% to 77.3% over the same time period and most of that loss taken up under the “other” category) and more likely to be professionals (from 23% to 39%). While there was an increase in the percentage of pre-senior women in the work force between 1980 and 2005 (41.6% to 56.8%), men are slightly more likely today to have left work—presumably for retirement—with a reduction from 71.4% to 69.9%.

What do all these figures really mean? The author suggests that the Northeast and Midwest will see increasing concentrations of less healthy and poorer seniors. Most seniors will seek to “age in place,” with interstate migration actually providing little of the demographic change in the next two decades.

Dr. Frey, a Research Professor at the University of Michigan, has written extensively about demographics and the changes we can anticipate as the Baby Boomers age. This new report is available online at The Brookings Institution's website.

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